2021 Padres Will Win 100 Games
The San Diego Padres have played over 160 games in 47 of the franchise’s 52 seasons. To say the Padres have been synonymous with losing is an understatement. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights (lowlights?):
100+ loss seasons (5)
90+ loss seasons (19)
82+ loss seasons (32)
--
100+ win seasons (0)
90+ win seasons (4)
82+ win seasons (14)
The Padres did not fare much better in the five seasons that featured less than 160 games:
60 games in 2020 (37-23, .617) *COVID-19 Pandemic-shortened season
110 games in 1981 (41-69, .373) *Mid-season Players Strike (6/12-7/31)
117 games in 1994 (47-70, .402) *Strike ended season on August 11th
144 games in 1995 (70-74, .486) *Strike-shortened season began on April 25th
153 games in 1972 (58-95, .379) *Strike erased first week and a half of season (league decided to excise lost portion of the season with no makeups. Padres had 9 games excised)
The 2021 version of the San Diego Padres is much closer to the 2020 version than it is to the 1969 version (52-110, .321). Most would argue that the 2021 roster is better than the 2020 roster across the board, and that anything less than a 90+ win season would be a major disappointment.
Instead of just pushing towards the 90-win mark, which would make this team among the most successful in franchise history, the 2021 version of the San Diego Padres should have its eyes on baseball’s hallowed win total, 100. A record of 100-62 would come with a winning percentage of .617, the same winning percentage the Padres posted in the Covid-shortened 2020 season.
Over the course of 127 seasons of Major League Baseball, only 109 teams have won at least 100 games. For all the success the los angeles dodgers have enjoyed in winning 8 straight NL West division titles, they have only won 100 games twice during that span (104 wins in 2017, 106 wins in 2019). The San Francisco Giants never won 100 games during their run of 3 World Series championships in 5 years (2010, 2012, 2014).
The Houston Astros* (cheating aside) are the team most often referenced when trying to find a comparison for the rise this Padres team is currently riding. The Astros* won 101 games in 2017 (Won World Series), won 103 games in 2018 (Lost ALCS), and won 107 games in 2019 (Lost World Series). That is the type of run the San Diego Padres should be looking to emulate.
The pieces are in place for that type of three-season run in San Diego, starting with the 2021 season. The Padres will play the dodgers 19 times in 2021. The way I see it, in order to win 100 games, the Padres will have to beat the dodgers 10 times. In that scenario, the Padres would have to finish 90-53 against the rest of the league. Let’s find those 90 wins:
19 games against Arizona (13 wins)
19 games against Colorado (13 wins)
19 games against San Francisco (11 wins)
33 games against NL Central (20 wins)
33 games against NL East (20 wins)
20 games against AL West (13 wins)
The formula for winning 100 games involves winning most of your series’, sweeping a few, and never getting swept. Most of the teams that have won 100+ games in the past featured at least one long winning streak (8 or more wins in a row) during the course of their 100 win season. On paper, it’s easy to find 100 wins. On the field, it will be much more challenging, but if any Padres team was positioned to threaten the 100-win plateau, it is this one.
The San Diego Padres first 100 win season is coming in 2021.
